October averages $5,084 in gross revenue per listing. January averages $1,920. That is a 2.6x swing on the same property, the same address, the same square footage — and if you underwrote your Nashville STR deal on annual averages alone, you missed the part that determines whether the asset cash-flows or bleeds every winter.AirDNA's seasonality subscore for Nashville sits at 73 out of 100, reflecting the percentage gap between the lowest and highest monthly average revenue over the past year. A score of 73 is moderate, not extreme — Nashville is not a ski town that flatlines for eight months. But the variance is real enough that month-to-month cash flow management is a separate skill from annual underwriting. Most investors who get into trouble here skip that step.
This is the calendar. Walk it with me, month by month, and pay attention to where the revenue actually lands — not where the brochure says it does.
January and February: The Floor
January is historically one of Nashville's softer months, driven by reduced event activity and more selective leisure travel. Booking behavior typically skews closer-in, with guests prioritizing value, flexibility, and shorter stays. The post-holiday hangover hits harder here than hosts expect coming off a reasonably busy December.
January averages just $1,920 in monthly revenue per listing — and February is similarly positioned as the calendar's weakest point. AirROI's analysis, based on data from the past 12 months, confirms that October is the peak revenue month for Nashville STRs, while February often presents the lowest earnings.
What this means for underwriting: your debt service, insurance, property management fees, and utilities still run in January and February. Nashville shows a high-beta seasonal market — investors must capitalize on the high-revenue months of May, June, and October to build cash reserves for the January-February low season. If your DSCR model assumes flat monthly income, it will fail the stress test. Build a two-month cash reserve minimum before you close on a Nashville STR deal. Our Nashville STR advisory practice runs this reserve analysis as part of every underwriting session — it is a non-negotiable line item.
March: The First Real Signal of the Year
March is where Nashville's revenue engine starts firing again. March averages $4,972 in monthly revenue per listing , making it one of the three strongest months of the year. That is not a coincidence. It is event-driven.
SEC Tournament play typically draws tens of thousands of fans through Bridgestone Arena. College visits, spring break travel, and bachelorette groups — bachelorette-party demand runs year-round but peaks in spring and fall, layering extra pressure onto those windows rather than adding a separate, distinct peak of its own — all converge in March. PriceLabs data identifies distinct demand poles for 2026 that signal a healthy recovery, with the window around March showing an 8.6% occupancy increase compared to surrounding dates.
The practical implication: set your March minimum-night requirement at three to four nights and price aggressively on the last two weeks of the month. That is when spring break travel books up fast and last-minute pricing leverage is real.
April and May: The Spring Peak
These are two of the five months that carry the rest of the year. The Nashville vacation rental market has strong seasonality, with October and May being the busiest months for Airbnb hosts. May sits at $4,869 in average monthly revenue per listing, according to Rabbu's March 2026 data.
April brings a specific, verifiable demand spike: the 26th annual St. Jude Rock 'n' Roll Running Series Nashville took place Saturday and Sunday, April 25-26, 2026, throughout Downtown Nashville and surrounding neighborhoods including The Gulch, 12 South, Music Row, Germantown, and Belmont-Hillsboro — Nashville's most popular running event of the year. Race weekend drew about 25,000 runners, plus thousands more spectators, volunteers, and supporters, translating into hotel demand, restaurant traffic, and longer visitor stays across the city. In a year when hotels are selling out, STR guests overflow into the surrounding neighborhoods at premium nightly rates.
May layers on top of April's momentum with college graduations, Musician's Corner at Centennial Park, and the continuation of bachelorette season. Morgan Wallen's concerts at Nissan Stadium, Nashville Predators home playoff games, and college graduations in early May led to the most hotel rooms ever sold on a Friday and Saturday in the city's history — totaling 75,000 rooms. When the hotel grid maxes out, your STR catches the overflow. Price accordingly.
June: CMA Fest and the Summer Inflection
June is the month that separates well-positioned downtown and SoBro listings from everything else. CMA Fest generated a record $86 million in estimated visitor spending, up from 2024's $77.3 million, with approximately 95,000 people attending the event from June 5 to 8, 2025. That is four days of full-city compression — hotels, STRs, and Airbnbs within two miles of Nissan Stadium see their highest nightly rates of the entire calendar year during that window.
On average, groups attending CMA Fest stayed five nights, spent around $3,608, and consisted of approximately 3.4 people. Notably, 11.4% of surveyed attendees were international visitors. A five-night group stay of 3.4 people is essentially a short-term rental guest profile. These are your guests.
CMA Fest is also when Nashville's World Cup 2026 energy kicks in. In June 2026, Nashville is hosting World Cup matches, and the city is throwing the biggest party in the Southeast, with GEODIS Park turning into a month-long celebration of concerts, Nashville SC matches, and cultural events. June 2026 is a one-time demand spike on top of an already-elevated baseline. Properties that are not yet permitted and live should not underwrite CMA Fest revenue — you have to earn that window. Hotels spike 40 to 60 percent during CMA Fest weekend, and downtown feels like a different city. Your STR should be capturing that same premium.
After CMA Fest, June reverts toward summer mid-season levels. Still solid. Not as vertical. Investors should capitalize on May, June, and October as the primary months for building cash reserves.
July and August: Mid-Summer Reality Check
Here is the contrarian take most agents will not say out loud: July is not as strong as Nashville's general reputation implies. July brings stability to Nashville's short-term rental market, with performance aligning with expectations for midsummer. While occupancy dipped slightly compared to last year, ADR remained steady — a sign that well-positioned homes are still delivering strong returns.
The city stays busy. Tourism does not stop. But July and August are where supply catches up to demand — more listings go live, families travel with tighter budgets, and the bachelorette calendar softens before the fall rush. As summer closes out, STRs are set for a pickup in late August and September demand, especially around concerts, Labor Day, and fall events.
For investors modeling an entry-level Downtown or 12 South property: July and August will perform. They will not perform the way CMA Fest weekend performed. The mistake is pricing July like it is June. Dynamic pricing tools recalibrate this automatically — hosts relying on static rates leave $400 to $800 per week on the table, or worse, sit vacant at rates the market has already passed.
September and October: Nashville's Best STR Months
This is the window that makes Nashville a compelling STR market. Full stop.
Nashville's peak Airbnb season spans the spring and fall months, with October being the highest-earning month at an average of $5,084 per listing. AirROI's 12-month analysis confirms that the peak revenue month for STRs in Nashville-Davidson is typically October, while January often presents the lowest earnings.
What is driving October specifically? A stacked events calendar. Pilgrimage Music and Cultural Festival, a popular two-day event at the Park at Harlinsdale Farm in Franklin, brought a 2025 lineup including John Mayer, Kings of Leon, Turnpike Troubadours, and Young the Giant. Nashville Oktoberfest runs Thursday through Sunday in early October at Bicentennial Capitol Mall State Park in Germantown, drawing a family-friendly crowd for beer, food, live music, and vendors. The Nashville Film Festival, fall wedding season, and peak foliage tourism stack on top of all of it.
During the peak month, Nashville-Davidson listings see monthly revenues climbing to $6,184, occupancy reaching 53.4%, and ADRs peaking at $377. Top-10% performers beat those numbers materially. Best-in-class properties in Nashville achieve $9,685 or more in monthly revenue during peak season. That gap between median and top-tier is not luck — it is design quality, dynamic pricing, and listing photography. If you want to understand how neighborhood positioning affects October performance, the breakdown across Davidson County by neighborhood matters more than the metro-level average.
September deserves its own note. The Nashville Film Festival runs September 18-24 at various venues across the city, featuring over 140 films from around the world. Football season opens Nissan Stadium. September and early October provide great weather with fewer tourists than spring and better rates for travelers — which translates directly into longer stays and higher booking velocity for STR hosts.
November: The Post-Peak Slide
October does not hand its momentum to November. The slide is real. December delivers a seasonally softer month for 4-bedroom homes, with occupancy averaging 35.8% — and November trends similarly in the run-up to the holiday lull. The CMA Awards ceremony in November generates a short, sharp spike around its broadcast date, but it does not move an entire month's revenue the way CMA Fest moves June.
Thanksgiving weekend is a partial recovery. Groups traveling to Nashville for the holiday — and increasingly using STRs rather than hotels for multi-family bookings — push occupancy for three to four nights. Do not set a seven-night minimum in November. You will leave Thanksgiving weekend money on the table.
December: Holiday Demand and a Softer Floor Than Hosts Expect
December delivered: occupancy at 37.2% — slightly above the prior year's 36.5%, supported by weekend stays and holiday travel; ADR at $219, modestly higher year-over-year while naturally resetting from November's elevated event-driven pricing; RevPAR at $82, up from the prior year's $78 but lower than November's $120 as off-peak weekdays softened; and a booking window of 37 days, shorter than both last year and November, highlighting quicker decision-making and last-minute holiday bookings.
Christmas at Gaylord Opryland runs from November 10 through January 1, and Cheekwood Holiday Lights displays run from mid-November through January. These anchor events sustain weekend demand through December and pull some early-January bookings. The issue is not the weekends — it is the weekday dead zones between Christmas and New Year's, and the full first three weeks of January when the events end and demand simply stops.
Hosts who model December as a full shoulder month are correct. Hosts who model it as a strong month are going to be unhappy with their January bank statement.
The Number That Ties All of This Together
The average active Nashville listing earned $40.9K in revenue over the trailing twelve months, with listings booked 54% of nights they were available at an average daily rate of $349. From June 2025 to June 2026, revenue is down 6.1%, occupancy is up 1.7%, ADR is down 6.0%, and RevPAR is down 9.8%.
That ADR compression matters. The market has more listings competing for the same demand pool, and rates have been pressured downward as a result. Nashville's short-term rental market has transitioned into a measured rebound phase following the 2025 correction, with supply contracting by 1.1% year-over-year and aggregate ADRs climbing, which means professional operators are regaining pricing leverage. The supply contraction is a positive signal for 2026 and 2027 underwriting — fewer active listings competing for demand that is not going anywhere.
What this means for buyers evaluating a Nashville short-term rental investment right now: the annual averages are real, but they do not tell you whether the asset can survive January and February without supplemental income. Model the slow months first. If the deal works on January revenue, October is upside. If the deal only works on October revenue, you do not actually have a deal — you have a seasonal gamble.
The Costigan Group builds month-by-month revenue models before any offer goes in. Recognized by USA Today as Nashville's leading STR and investment advisor, we use the Nashville STR Underwriting Calculator to stress-test every deal against the seasonal floor, not the seasonal ceiling. If you are relocating to Nashville and considering an investment property alongside your primary home purchase, the seasonal calendar is the first thing we will show you — because the relocation decision and the investment decision interact in ways most buyers do not plan for until it is too late. More detail on what that analysis looks like is available directly through our team at thecostigangroup.com.
Related reading
- Nashville Short-Term Rental Investment
- Nashville STR Underwriting: The Occupancy Assumptions Smart Investors Use
- The Complete Nashville Short-Term Rental Investment Guide for 2026: Permits, Underwriting, Neighborhoods, and Exit
Frequently Asked Questions
What is the slowest month for Airbnb in Nashville?
The peak revenue month for Nashville STRs is typically October, while January or February typically presents the lowest earnings. January averages just $1,920 in monthly revenue per listing — meaning peak months generate more than 2.5 times the revenue of the off-season. Hosts should carry two months of operating expense reserves to bridge the January-February trough without stress.
Does CMA Fest actually move the needle for Nashville STR hosts?
Yes — materially. CMA Fest generated a record $86 million in estimated visitor spending in 2025, with approximately 95,000 people attending from June 5 to 8. STR hosts with properties in or near Downtown, SoBro, and Germantown see nightly rates spike during that four-day window, often to the highest single-night rates of the calendar year. The impact attenuates quickly with distance from Nissan Stadium, so location matters more than it does in a typical month.
How much does the best month outperform the worst in Nashville?
During the peak month, Nashville-Davidson STR listings see monthly revenues climbing to $6,184, occupancy reaching 53.4%, and ADRs peaking at $377. The slowest single month sees revenue dip to approximately $3,407, occupancy drop to 34.1%, and ADRs adjust to $311. That is roughly a 1.8x revenue difference between the market's best and worst months for a median-performing listing — top-tier performers show a wider gap.
Should I adjust my minimum-stay settings by season in Nashville?
Yes, and this is one of the most common configuration mistakes in the Nashville market. During October, CMA Fest weekend, and spring peak months like March and May, a three-to-four-night minimum captures higher-value group bookings without leaving weekend revenue behind. During the slow season, booking behavior skews closer-in, with guests prioritizing value, flexibility, and shorter stays — which means a two-night minimum in January and February fills more calendar nights than a longer requirement would.
Is Nashville's STR seasonality more pronounced than other major cities?
Nashville scores 83 out of 100 on AirDNA's Market Score. Its seasonality subscore of 73 reflects the percentage gap between the lowest and highest monthly average revenue over the past year. That seasonality score is moderate compared to purely resort-driven markets like ski towns or beach destinations, but the event-driven demand calendar means the peaks can spike sharply — and the valleys can surprise hosts who did not model them carefully.
Does neighborhood selection change how seasonal a Nashville STR is?
Significantly. Downtown and SoBro listings are the most event-reactive — they spike harder during CMA Fest, the Rock 'n' Roll Marathon, and major concerts, but they also attract shorter stays and more transient demand in slow months. Properties in prime areas like The Gulch can achieve as high as 80% occupancy when positioned and priced correctly. Neighborhoods like 12 South, Germantown, and East Nashville attract a slightly longer average stay, which smooths the seasonal variance and improves slow-month floor performance.
How does the 2026 STR supply picture affect seasonal revenue projections?
Nashville-Davidson's 5,790 active listings saw active supply contract 15.0% year over year, yet revenue and nightly rates both rose — fewer listings are capturing more of the market. That supply contraction is a meaningful tailwind for 2026 seasonal modeling. The hosts who exited the market during the 2025 rate compression were generally lower-quality operators; the listings that remain are better positioned, which benefits any well-run new entry competing against a thinner competitive set, especially during peak months.
About The Costigan Group
Jack Costigan is the founder of The Costigan Group at Compass in Nashville, where his team has closed more than $100 million in real estate across Greater Nashville and Middle Tennessee. Specializing in luxury advisory, investment, and short-term rental real estate, Jack is known for a data-driven approach that helps buyers, sellers, and investors understand the numbers, the neighborhood, and the long-term value before making a decision. Featured in Apple News as one of Nashville's most sought-after short-term rental advisors, Jack pairs deep local expertise with modern marketing and a strategy-first approach to real estate. Learn more at thecostigangroup.com.
